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 1
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A K 9 7 6
| We expect to take all 5 tricks in this suit without much drama. The odds of a 3-2 fit are 65%.
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Q 5 3
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2
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A K 9 7
| 3
tricks for sure but with only 7 cards the most common split of the
missing cards is 4-2 49% of the time and only 35% of the time will it
be 3-3.
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Q 5 3
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3
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A Q 9
| 1
1/2 tricks. Half the time the K will be on the left of dummy and half
on the right. 2 tricks 50% of the time if we lead from 5 3 toward A Q.
almost ZERO% if we lead from the A Q in dummy
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5 3
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 4
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K 9 7 6 4
| 1/2 trick -
if the ace is on our left we win either the first or second trick.
Think about it - no downside since we will lose to the ace in all cases
- but if the ace is where we want, we will win a trick and maybe get to
discard another loser.
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3
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5
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A 9 7
| 1 1/2 trick -
if the king
is on our RIGHT we get 2 tricks. Correct play is to win the ace and
lead low towards the queen. Note that leading the Q toward the A never
wins. If left has K they cover and after we win A we are no better
off. If right has the king, we lose and still get only 1 trick.
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Q 8 4 3
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6
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A J 10 2
| 1 trick for
sure, but the odds are in our favor on this combination. Missing
the K & Q the odds are 65% that either both the K & Q are on
our left OR that left has one and right has the other. To take
advantage, we finesse toward dummy TWICE.
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8 4 3
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 7
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A K 7 6 2
| While this looks like just 2 tricks, the
odds are smiling again. Remember that a while a 3-3 split is only 35%
and that 4-2 is 49%? That means that 82% of the time the 6 cards
split either 3-3 or 4-2. So the 5th card will be good 82% of the
time. It does require planning, entries and perhaps losing 2
tricks (which you are losing anyway) but there is an extra trick likely.
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8 4
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