| Ploy |
Chance
of success |
| 3 - 3 split
of 6 cards |
33% |
| 4 - 2 split
of 6 cards |
46% |
| 3 - 2 split
of 5 cards |
68% |
| Finesse (no
outside knowledge |
50% |
| Dropping the
Queen with only 4 cards out |
52% |
 |
8
5 |
Contract 3 NT | ||
 |
A
8 7 |
|||
 |
A
J 7 5 |
Lead:
4 | ||
 |
K
J 7 3 |
|||
| Sure
Tricks | ||||
|
K
6 |
1
| ||
|
Q
J 4 |
1
| We might find the Q doubleton. We can try to drop it if we do that first. The odds are less than 50% but we get to try the 50% finesse later if needed. |
|
|
K
4 3 2 |
2
| Take the A & K of . If the Queen falls, smile and collect an over trick. |
|
|
A
Q 6 4 |
4
|
||
| We need 1 more trick
to make the contract but clearly cannot lose the lead without losing too many tricks. There
are 2 finesses but ... | If the Queen does not fall, run the suit ending in your hand and try the finesse |
|||