Looks like:
1
loser2
losers1
loser (maybe) s and discard the
loser on the 4th diamond. You really don't care if that 4th
diamond is ruffed since it will br ruffed with the high trump you are
going to lose anyway!
| Ploy |
Chance
of success |
| 3 - 3 split
of 6 cards |
33% |
| 4 - 2 split
of 6 cards |
46% |
| 3 - 2 split
of 5 cards |
68% |
| Finesse (no
outside knowledge |
50% |
| Dropping the
Queen with only 4 cards out |
52% |
|
9 6 |
Contract 4
|
|
K 7 5 4 |
Lead: K
|
|
A Q J 2 |
|
|
7 5 4 |
Looks like: 1 loser2 losers1 loser (maybe) |
|
A 7 |
|
|
A J 8 3 |
We
are depending on a 3-2 break in trump (68%). How about drawing 2
rounds of trump (A K)? If the Q drops, problem solved. If
not, run the good s and discard the
loser on the 4th diamond. You really don't care if that 4th
diamond is ruffed since it will br ruffed with the high trump you are
going to lose anyway!
|
|
K 8 5 |
|
|
A 8 6 2 |
|