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Count your tricks or losers.  There are at least 2 ways make the contract. 
Find the ways AND decide in which order the ways should be tried

Chance
Chance of success
3 - 3 split of 6 cards
33%
4 - 2 split of 6 cards
46%
3 - 2 split of 5 cards
68%
Finesse (no outside knowledge
50%
Dropping the Queen with only 4 cards out
52%


A 9 4 Contract
3 NT
8 6
Opening
Lead
5
J 6 4 3


A K 5 3
Hint:  I see 8 tricks. 
Where  can we get
the 9th?


See the Answer

  K 7 5 2


  A Q


  A K 8 2


  8 6 4